Introduction:
Sitting in the computer lab of my high school, my friend had told me that doomsday was upon us. It is a common belief that on the winter solstice (December 21) 2012 the end of world will come in correlation with the end of the Mayan calendar. Now in my second year of university, and nearing the winter solstice December 2010, I have found it increasingly intriguing to analyze these theories on doomsday to see if they hold up or can be proven by science. Thus, professor Rafiee and I have embarked on a comic journey into the speculations of doomsday that corresponds with the specific date of winter solstice 2012. In Regards to: solar flares, extra terrestrial planets, polar shifts, galactic alignment, and asteroid’s encounter; we have concluded that there is no catastrophic cosmic force that will cause the doomsday to occur on December 21, 2012. I will now explore all of the hypotheses of astronomical intervention that are believed to hinder the end of geological life on earth, to determine whether these hypotheses can be recognized as fact or fantasy.
Solar Flares:
Solar Flares are enormous explosions in the suns atmosphere as defined by NASA. They involve the eruption of magnetic energy around sunspots. These impulsive flares accelerating mostly electrons and protons can occur over 1000 times during a solar maximum. Solar maximum is part of a cycle of the sun’s activity that peaks every 11 years. Our last solar maximum was in 2002-2003, and we are about to enter the phase of the solar maximum once again in 2013. We have already seen a report from NASA’s SOHO observing the largest X-ray solar flare in years which occurred on November 8th 2010. But what does this mean for us on earth? Large X-ray flares do have the ability to cause damage to satellites orbiting Earth. They also have the ability to interrupt radio waves. This would result in problems with global communication, and maybe even temporal power outages in some regions; but global destruction is highly unlikely and controllable. So, it is safe to say that the world will not come to an end by any means through a gigantic solar flare in 2012.
Planet X, Nibiru:
Many ideas about doomsday come from the origin of a Planet X also known as Nibiru. It is a popular belief amongst non-scientific scholars that there is a planet that exists on a highly elliptical orbit that will smash into the earth, or at least come very close in 2012. This idea must be the most preposterous of all the other hypotheses since its existence cannot be astronomically proven. It has never been witnessed by any telescope on earth or in space. This simple fact shatters the hypothesis of this Plant X existing since; after all, we can detect extra terrestrial plants that orbit other stars as well as small asteroids or comets beyond the Neptune orbits with the current technology. Lastly, planet X is defined as an unidentified orbital object. Upon initial speculation the object is given the name plant X until astronomers can identify what it is and then they give it a real name. There is no plant X, and if objects were discovered to be planets or dwarf planets, they would be given a real name like Eris or Pluto.
Polar Shift:
The hypothesis of doomsday claims that there will be a 180 degree reversal of the poles both physical and magnetic that will occur in a matter of days if not hours in 2012. This however is the juxtaposition of two completely different types of polar shifts. There are two kinds of polar shifts that coincide with the two features of our earth. Physical polar shifts refer to the shifting of the Earth’s tectonic plates that would alter the physical location of the planets pole. Magnetic polar shifts refer to the shifting of the Earth’s pole in relation to the direction of our magnetosphere. The earths tectonic plates do in fact move approximately 2-3 centimeters every year on average; but, it would take millions of years for the plates to reverse unless coerced by a giant impact; something more massive than an asteroid or even Niburu. However, such threatening objects must be visible now by current technology. Magnetic polar shifts occur on earth all the time at a pace slower than a human could walk. On average between the years 1831 and 2001 the magnetic pole has moved 7- 8 kilometers each year or 22 meters a day. Magnetic reversals do occur at unpredictable and irregular times that average out to be every 300 thousand years and there has been no evidence of this happening in the past 780 thousand years. Does this mean that we are going to have one so catastrophic that the poles will reverse in a matter of days? Absolutely not, magnetic reversal of the poles does not happen over night. The process takes roughly a few thousand years to complete. Once again, you should notice that the hypothesis of catastrophic polar shifts have been combined as if they were the same thing; which they are not, and since they work on two completely different time scales. The idea of both occurring on this date (2012) is implausible and quite farcical to anyone who has an understanding of Astronomy.
Galactic Alignment:
There is also a fear of Galactic alignment in doomsday hypes. Universe today, a devoted website to astronomy, gives us a scientific definition of a galactic alignment; where the Earth, Sun, and center of the galaxy are in perfect alignment from our perspective; meaning that, galactic alignment is an annual visual effect that takes place every December 21st , including the winter solstice 2012. This apparent alignment has happened for the last few thousand years and will happened for the next few thousand years during the winter solstice. The second type is; galactic alignment of the solar system with galactic center. Sun orbits around the galactic center once every 220 million years. At the same time, it oscillates up and down crossing the galactic plane once every 64 million years. So it is possible for the solar system to be perfectly aligned with the galactic plane; however, our solar system is far way from the galactic plane now, thus any possible threat due alignments on 2012 will be implausible.
Apophis, Asteroid Collision:
There is a threat that can be proven by science, which Neil deGrasse Tyson brings to the attention of the public. This is an asteroid know as Apophis since it was identified in 2004. It is believed that this asteroid could possibly enter a keyhole in between the Earths atmosphere. If this happens the asteroid could very likely impact the earth’s ocean causing tsunamis and major devastation to our plant. The probability of this asteroid hitting the earth, when it was discovered in 2004, was a likely hood of one in 45,000. Since NASA has refined its observations of Apophis the likelihood has yet decreased now to one in a 45 million chance of global impact. Now in regards to this threat, the date has been set for April 13th 2036, not 2012. Yet for some reason people are not captivated by 2036 even though there is actual proof that this asteroid poses factual threat, more than any other topic that we have discussed thus far.
Conclusion:
Now I would like to take you into the conclusive findings of this cosmic journey. My motive in this paper has not been to disprove doomsday, but to disprove that it will occur December 21st 2012. Solar Flares have been known to cause damage, especially during solar maximum, to satellites orbiting earth but they will not have a devastating impact on human civilization. It is safe to say that plant Niburu is not a 5th terrestrial plant that will impact Earth. In my introduction I refer to the planet X as an extra terrestrial, when I say extra I do not mean it in its proper definition, planets orbiting other stars, I was merely classifying this object as an extra or 5th planet until I could further disprove its existence. We have also talked about the possibilities of two types of polar shifts and concluded that neither is possible in 2012, separately or simultaneously. Galactic alignment will occur on the winter solstice of 2012 and it will continue to happen merely as a visual effect for approximately the next 1100 years (depending on your precision). Alignment of our solar system with galactic center could possibly occur, but we do not have the instruments or information that would help us predict with precision and accuracy when this would occur. One thing that our technology can infer is that 100% galactic alignment will not be possible in our lifetime.
What we do know and what we can prove is that asteroids do pose an Actual threat to our world. If an asteroid is a minimum of 10 kilometers it would impact the earth with so much force that it would cause global extinction. Apophis is much less than one kilometer, therefore; it has the ability to cause tsunamis and earth quakes. But for some reason we are not worried by the facts, there is a proven 1-to- 45million chance of collision, though it seems small it is a relatively higher than all other possible hypotheses of doomsday. Now I ask the reader of this paper to Google 2012 to come to a conclusion on why there is so much hype around 2012 and not 2036 (Apophis collision). I guarantee that the first sources you will read about are the ones on the official website of the movie being promoted called 2012. You will also see advertisements or t-shirts, hats and other paraphernalia to raise revenues for major Hollywood production companies. This trend in marketing became especially popular in the late 90’s and can be exemplified by the tale of the Blair Witch Project, where a story that is completely fiction is marketed as a true story. If you look at the facts of the 2012 theory topics and separate them the reality resonates; there is no facts composed within this tangled web of fictional scientific fantasies.
Bibliography
http://astrobiology.nasa.gov/ask-an-astrobiologist/intro/nibiru-and-doomsday-2012-questions-and-answers
http://helios.gsfc.nasa.gov/flare.html
http://www.universetoday.com/14645/2012-no-killer-solar-flare/
http://www.nasa.gov/vision/earth/lookingatearth/29dec_mag http://www.universetoday.com/30762/galactic-alignment/neticfield.html
http://the-cosmic-journey.blogspot.com/search/label/asteroids
http://the-cosmic-journey.blogspot.com/search/label/2012
http://the-cosmic-journey.blogspot.com/search/label/Doomsday
http://www.nasa.gov/home/hqnews/2009/oct/HQ_09-232_Apophis_Update.html
